Value Creation Summit July 2025
PRESENTED BY
SUMMIT PARTNERS
Vetted Experts -> Today's Speakers
Guy Rubin Founder + CEO
Ryan Walsh Founder + CEO
Kai Mitsushio Investor Alliances
Sean Saint Head of Investment Research
Jaap Westrik Founder
Simulive Event → Speakers Answering Q&A Live In Chat
REVENUE FORECAST ATTAINMENT Missed 2024 Forecasts Unacceptable
Missed Beat
70%
63%
60%
60%
50%
40%
42%
42%
30%
32%
90% Confidence Level: “I should come in under my forecast once every 2.5 years (10 quarters).” - Dave Kellogg
25%
23%
20%
19%
10%
0%
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
+
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
+28% Capacity Post Market Peak Poor Forecasts Drove GTM Overhiring In 2022 = Sales Net Hires / Fires
= Marketing Net Hires / Fires
Alto Model
+
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
‘25
Index Components: Proprietary to Cloud Ratings | Data Source: People Data Labs Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Zendesk Case Study: Misses → $6.8 Billion Lost
Feb ‘22 Offer: $127 - $132 / share = $17.0 Billion
2023e Forecast: (9.5)% revision in 3 months
66% monthly bookings misses
Jun ‘22 Deal: $77.50 /share = $10.2 Billion
$6.8 Billion Lost
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Zendesk Case Study: Slowdown Was Foreseeable
Forward Demand Indicator (LHS)
Realized New Bookings (RHS)
Alto Model
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Alt Data Outperforms Channel Checks By 5x
R-SQUARE VS REVENUE ACROSS LAG 0 - LAG 6:
1.0
0.77 0.78 0.78 0.77
0.8
0.71 0.74
0.65
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
0.0
L-0 L-1
L-2 L-3 L-4 L-5 L-6 |
L-0 L-1
L-2 L-3 L-4 L-5 L-6
ALTERNATIVE DATA - TOP QUARTILE n = 125,000+ alternative data points from Tier 1 Alt Data suppliers, conducted by Cloud Ratings for Alto Model construction
SYSTEMATIC CHANNEL CHECKS n = 264 equity research systematic channel checks covering 7,500+ data points, conducted by a Tier 1 investment bank
Alto Model
Note: Reflects Proprietary + Confidential Cloud Ratings Work Product
Software Buyout Study
MISSED FORECASTS
LIMITED MARGIN EXPANSION
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Alto Model
SaaS Demand YTD 2025 via
Indexed To 1.0 at January 2024:
Broad Software - n=340 Macro Sensitive Subset
1.4
Start of Tariffs / “Liberation Week”
1.2
1.0
Today vs Pre “Liberation Week”: Broad Software = 0.0% Macro Sensitive = +5.5%
Normal Holiday Seasonality
“Human pipeline reviews can only take you so far. ‘Macro’ and ‘tariffs’ are perfect excuses for sellers , especially B and C Players . You need to be using data at scale - your sellers' email inboxes, your call recordings, your CRM - to *really* know if macro is impacting your net new business.” - Guy Rubin, Ebsta Founder + CEO
0.8
0.6
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Be Mindful Of Your End Market Volatility
STANDARD DEVIATION OF REVENUE GROWTH RATE - Q1 2022 TO Q4 2024
0%
10%
Transportation, Logistics, Supply Chain Tech
19%
15%
Public Sector Tech
15%
Media Tech
Restaurant, Hospitality + Leisure Tech
12%
Cybersecurity Property Tech
12%
10% 10%
Developer + Engineering Tech
10%
FinTech EdTech
7%
Marketing + Sales Tech
6%
Data, Infrastructure + Reporting Tech
5%
5%
E-commerce + Retail Tech
5%
HealthTech
HR, Legal + Back Office Tech
5%
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
2025 GTM Yields + Conversions Are Concerning
<$25m ARR
$25-$100m ARR
$100-$250m ARR
>$250m ARR
1 - Marketing Targeting:
(HIGHER IS BETTER)
0% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2% 2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025
2 - Sales Execution:
(HIGHER IS BETTER)
4%
4%
3% 4%
3%
2%
2% 3%
2%
2% 3%
2%
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025
3 - Full Funnel Performance:
(HIGHER IS BETTER)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0%
9% 8%
8% 10% 8%
6%
6% 6% 5%
5% 4% 6%
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025 //
2023 2024 2025
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Insufficient Pipeline Coverage
PIPELINE COVERAGE
PIPELINE COVERAGE RATIOS
Stated / Required
Stated Coverage
Required Coverage
5x
110%
110%
4x
102%
4.1x
3.9x
3.8x 3.7x
100%
3.6x
3.6x
NEGATIVE MARGIN FOR ERROR ZONE
3x
90%
87%
2x
80%
1x
0x
70%
2023
2024
2025
2023
2024
2025
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Reasons For Misses → Summit Action Items
Summit Action Items + Partner Capabilities:
0%
20%
Pipeline & Deal Flow
34%
Sales Execution & Performance
19%
Market & Economic Conditions
17%
Internal Operations & Resources
12%
Go-to-Market Strategy & Execution
8%
Leadership & Strategy
6%
4%
Product Market Fit
Other Factors 2%
Cloud Ratings Analysis of Pavilion Pulse Reports Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
Vetted Experts -> Today's Speakers
Guy Rubin Founder + CEO
Ryan Walsh Founder + CEO
Kai Mitsushio Investor Alliances
Sean Saint Head of Investment Research
Jaap Westrik Founder
Book Partner Introduction Via Matt Harney:
“The forecast is analytics, judgment, and trust all rolled up in one. If companies keep missing forecasts , it’s hard not to lose trust . It’s hard to let the team lean forward on growth, product, and acquisitions…” MANAGING PARTNER
TIER 1 GROWTH EQUITY FIRM
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
“ I don't hold my investment team accountable unless I can see something in the data that would have reflected a sales pipeline issue .
As a PE board member, I have only one shot to make a voluntary change at a leadership level before I begin to lose the confidence of my investment committee . If I'm going to pull the trigger, I need to be 100% confident and have exhausted all options. The primary communication issue is the inability of the executives to demonstrate, quantitatively and qualitatively , why the strategy board members' ( typically spreadsheet folks ) perspectives are inaccurate. Their expectations need to be acknowledged and addressed to build consensus and alignment.”
MANAGING PARTNER TECH CROSSOVER FIRM
Social Attribution: @CloudRatings + @SaaSletter
About Us
ROI STUDIES
QUADRANTS
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NEWSLETTER
SAAS DEMAND INDEX
METHODOLOGY: PUBLIC DATA ENHANCED WITH PRIVATE VENDOR DATA VIA ANALYST RFI
SAAS EMPLOYMENT INDEX
OPERATOR PODCAST
B2B AI INTEREST INDEX
INVESTOR PODCAST
PARTNERSHIP: ENHANCED WITH G2 DATA FOR ROI + IMPLEMENTATION + CUSTOMER MIX
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